One Plus One Equals…You?  The Worldwide Math of Marriage
By Heath Shive

“Love and marriage/ It’s an institute you can’t disparage.”  - Frank Sinatra

In last week’s article, I talked about the rise of the singletons – or, single people who live alone.

Now let’s talk about the all-time champion of living arrangements – the married couple. 

In a 2012 U.S. Census study, the number of single-person households was outmatched – however slightly – by one group, couples without children.  These couples could be young and yet to have kids, or they could be older and their children have moved out.

Households with married people – with or without children – are the most common living arrangement in the country, totaling 56 million households in 2011! 

Marriage itself is very common. 

How common?

To the math!

The Math of Marriage

Helen Fisher is a biological anthropologist and considered an authority on the institution of marriage.  She has examined marriage for all its psychological, sociological, and sexual worth. 

Also, Helen Fisher is the author of the very well-received book, “Anatomy of Love: A Natural History of Mating, Marriage, and Why We Stray.”  In Chapter 3 (entitled, “Is Monogamy Natural?”), Fisher has collected some very impressive numbers about marriage.  Here are just a few.

• Globally, between 2000 and 2009, an average of 90.2% of women and 88.9% of men had married by age 49
  
• In 2009, 83% of American men and 88.5% of American women had married by age 49
• Today, 85%-90% of men and women in the United States are projected to wed

But Not All Marriages Are Equal

What exactly do you mean by “marriage”?

As Fisher reports, a “whopping” 84% of all traditional societies permit a man to take more than one wife at once.  That means only 16% of the 853 cultures on record actually prescribe monogyny (a man with only one wife).

Polyandry (a woman who takes more than one husband) is rare, but real.  The Tlingit Indians of southern Alaska are one example.  But, only 0.5% of all societies permit a woman to take more than one husband. 

In China, a man could take only one wife legally, but he could have numerous concubines.  And let’s not forget the notorious harems of the Middle Eastern and Berber sultans.

Conclusion

It is still a married person’s world!

By the numbers, most people really want to be married.

But do they want to be faithfully married?

Next week, we look at another (regrettable) aspect of marriage in the new article, “Your Cheating Heart: The Science of Adultery.” 

LIKE SCHOLARFOX ON FACEBOOK!

Sources:

Fisher, Helen.  Anatomy of Love:  A Natural History of Mating, Marriage, and Why We Stray.  Rev. Ed.  W.W. Norton & Company, 2017. 

Vespa, Jonathon, Jamie M. Lewis, and Rose M. Kreider. United States, U.S. Census Bureau.  America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2012.  Issued August 2013. 
 

The Rise of the Singles!  Alone But Not Lonely
by Heath Shive

More than 50 percent of American adults are single!  And roughly one in every seven adults lives…alone.

People who live alone make up 28 percent of all U.S. households.  More people live alone than in nuclear families, multigenerational families, or have roommates.

Sociologist Eric Klinenberg wrote a book on this phenomenon entitled “Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal of Living Alone.”

The Numbers

“Singletons” – as Klinenberg calls single people who live alone – are primarily women (about 17 million, compared to 14 million men).  Over 15 million are middle-age adults between the ages of 35 and 64.  The elderly make up 10 million.  Young adults (ages 18-34) number more than 5 million – but they are the fastest-growing segment of singletons.

The Rise of the Singleton

According to Euromonitor International, the number of people living alone in the world has increased dramatically.  In 1996, 153 million people lived alone.  By 2006, that number was 202 million – an increase of 33 percent in one decade!

In 1950, 22 percent of American adults were single, Klinenberg reports.  Today, that number is 50 percent.

In 1950, 9 percent of the population lived alone.  Today, 28 percent of America lives alone.

This isn’t just an American trend.

Germany, France, and the United Kingdom all have a greater proportion of one-person households than the United States!  So do Australia and Canada.

And the nations with the fastest growth in one-person households?

China, India, and Brazil. 

Is This a Problem?

Obviously, singletons are increasing.  But is this good or bad?

Unfortunately, as Klinenberg writes, when there is a public debate about the rise of living alone, “commentators tend to present it as an unmitigated social problem, a sign of narcissism, fragmentation, and a diminished public life.”

What is driving the widespread rise in living alone?  Simply put, more people live alone because they can afford it.

But something is being lost, right?  Not necessarily.  The four countries with the highest rates of living alone are Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark – where roughly 40 to 45 percent of all households have just one person.  By investing in each other’s social welfare and affirming their bonds of mutual support, the Scandinavians have freed themselves to be on their own.

The pioneer sociologist Emile Durkheim talked about the “cult of the individual,” which he said grew out of the transition from traditional rural communities to modern industrial cities.

But Durkheim also argued that the modern division of labor would bind citizens organically!  In other words, you cannot live alone in a vacuum – society must have the institutions (family, economy, effective state policy) to create this environment.  Singletons must invest in a strong society for their own sake.

Isn’t this what we see in growing gentrification?  The renaissance of America’s downtowns?

Conclusion

How many of the divorced and separated have told you this truth?  It is lonelier to live with the wrong person than to live alone.

The evidence suggests that people who live alone compensate by becoming more socially active than those who live with others, and that cities with high numbers of singletons enjoy a thriving public culture.

You can be alone, but you don’t have to be lonely.

LIKE SCHOLARFOX ON FACEBOOK!

Sources:

Klinenberg, Eric.  Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal of Living Alone.  Penguin Press, 2012. 
Vespa, Jonathon, Jamie M. Lewis, and Rose M. Kreider. United States, U.S. Census Bureau.  America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2012.  Issued August 2013. 
 
 

You Only Know 150 People!  This Is Good for Your Wedding List
By Heath Shive

According to The Knot 2016 Real Wedding Study, a wedding’s average size is 141 guests.  It was 136 guests in their 2014 Real Wedding Study, down from 149 guests in 2009. 

In fact, you should probably just round up to 150.  Why?

Because you only really “know” about 150 people in your life.

It’s called Dunbar’s number.

Don’t believe me?

To the science!

Dunbar’s Number

In the 1990s, British anthropologist Robin Dunbar studied primates and found that there was a correlation between the size of the primate’s neocortex and how large their group size was.  Using data from 38 primate genera, Dunbar predicted a human “mean group size” of 148 (casually rounded to 150).

So according to Dunbar, a human can comfortably maintain only 150 stable relationships.  Dunbar explained it informally as “the number of people you would not feel embarrassed about joining uninvited for a drink if you happened to bump into them in a bar.”

Dunbar’s number suggests that there’s an upper limit to how many people you can form stable social relationships (i.e., you maintain the relationship).

Number History

Dunbar went on to connect his number with historical antecedents.  For example, 150 is the estimated size of a Neolithic farming village.  The upper limit of a Roman century was 150.  The size of a modern infantry company is 150. 

And the size of an average wedding is around 150. 

Malcolm Gladwell discusses Dunbar’s number in his best-selling book “The Tipping Point.”  Gladwell used the company W.L. Gore and Associates (best known for Gore-Tex) as an example.  The company’s management found that if more than 150 employees worked in one building, social problems began to multiply.  So W.L. Gore and Associates operates company offices in buildings that have a 150 employee limit.  When the office gets too big, they just set up the next 150 employees in another building!

Conclusion

We tend to think of the brain as infinite and boundless.  But we’re only human.  There is a limit to what we can do and maintain in our brains. 

There’s only so much time to involve your life with only so many people. 

Aren’t weddings bad enough to plan already?  Keeping that number down to who you really love (and who love you) isn’t just about numbers.  It’s about good living. 

LIKE US ON FACEBOOK!

Sources
Dunbar, Robin.  Grooming, Gossip, and the Evolution of Language.  Harvard University Press, 2000.
Gladwell, Malcolm.  The Tipping – How Little Things Make a Big Difference.  Little, Brown and Company, 2000.
Dunbar, R.I.M. (1992).  “Neocortex size as a constraint on group size in primates.”  Journal of Human Evolution.  22 (6): 469-493. 
The Knot Wedding Study numbers for 2016 were taken from XOGroup Inc.  https://xogroupinc.com/press-releases/theknot2016realweddings_costofweddingsus/
The Knot Wedding Study data was taken from PRSNewswire: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-knot-the-1-wedding-site-releases-2014-real-weddings-study-statistics-300049675.html
 

Doughnuts, Dishonesty, and What Makes a Holiday Disappointing
By H. Shive

Holidays started out as “holy days” – a time for rest and prayer.  But there’s no rest for the wicked.  Turns out, the wicked steal doughnuts and bagels…and that's how you can judge a holiday.

Don’t believe me?

To the science!

The Bagel Man and His Magic Math

Paul Feldman was an economic analyst for years.  He then retired and started a bagel/doughnut delivery business.  After a few years, he was delivering over 8,000 bagels a week to over 140 companies.  Because he is a former economic analyst, his records are immaculate…and filled to the brim with data to scrutinize.

In an eight-year period, he delivered 1.375 million bagels and over 648 thousand doughnuts. 

How often are people honest?  Paul Feldman knows the answer.  People are honest – on the average – 89% of the time. 

What Do Bagels Have To Do With a Bad Holiday? 
 
Because of his mountainous data, Feldman could see all kinds of trends.  People are more likely to steal in companies with a large number of employees compared to smaller companies.  People are more likely to steal when the weather turns bad, but people will be more generous when the weather is unexpectedly pleasant. When unemployment is high, people are more likely to steal.

And holidays?

People are more likely to steal bagels and doughnuts during Christmas time than any other holiday! 

Overall payment rates drop 2 percent (from an 89% honesty rate to 87%) during the week of Christmas.  This boost in dishonesty represents an 15% increase in theft! 

Thanksgiving is almost as bad.  St. Valentine’s Day is “lousy” and so is the week of Tax Day (April 15th).

Here’s another surprise.  People were more honest during July 4th, Labor Day, and Columbus Day.

But Why?

You would think that Christmas would the time of maximum honesty and goodwill.   So why the extra bad instead of extra good?

In the acclaimed best-selling book Freakonomics, authors Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner reviewed this case of bagel theft in the very first chapter of their book. 

They compared the holidays.  How are Christmas and St. Valentine’s Day so different from Labor Day and even Columbus Day?

Because holidays like Christmas, Thanksgiving, and St. Valentine’s represent a major financial setback and an overwhelming increase in anxiety.  In contrast, holidays like Labor Day and Columbus Day are basically just a day off of work. 

Conclusion

What makes a holiday good – or any day of any week, for that matter – is how much stress and anxiety it creates. 

But since Christmas and St. Valentine’s Day are not likely to get any easier to bear in the future, things will look bleak for honesty (and doughnut sales) come the holidays.   
So remember, when a high-spending holiday looms, keep an eye on your valuables.  People are more willing to steal.  ‘Tis the season. 

LIKE US ON FACEBOOK!

Sources:
Levitt, Steven D. and Stephen J. Dubner.  Freakonomics:  A Rogue Economist Explores The Hidden Side of Everything.  William Morrow (HarperCollins imprint), 2005.

Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt (June 6, 2004). "What The Bagel Man Saw". The New York Times.